Augusta, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS63 KICT 031055
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
455 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rollercoaster temperatures through this weekend.

- No precipitation expected over the next week, possibly longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Analyzing water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning,
the overall pattern hasn`t changed much over the past day or so. The
western CONUS ridging has shifted slightly eastward towards the
central plains as the upper troughing across the Great Lakes
and eastern seaboard weakens temporarily. At the surface, a
surface ridge is translating across the region this morning.
Clear skies and light winds associated with this surface ridge
is allowing for robust radiational cooling, and much of the
forecast area has fallen into the teens this morning as a
result. However, as the surface ridge shifts eastward promoting
southerly low level flow, and the region feels more influence
from mid/upper ridging out west, temperatures will begin
rebounding. The rebound will be more subtle today with afternoon
highs only in the 40s. However, milder temperatures are
expected Wednesday afternoon as highs rise into the mid to
upper 50s, and some locations across southern/southeast Kansas
may touch the 60-degree mark.

Another lobe of shortwave troughing is expected to dig into the
Midwest/Great Lakes region on Wednesday, and this will promote
another bout of colder air to surge into the central portion of the
country Wednesday night and Thursday morning. As a result, afternoon
highs will likely only rise into the 30s Thursday afternoon across
most of the forecast area. However, temperatures will rebound
quickly for the end of the work week and into the weekend with
widespread low 60s possible on Sunday. After this weekend, the
forecast becomes a bit more uncertain; however, current trends
in long range global ensembles suggest another cool down will
be in store for much of the region next week. Also, trends in
long range global models past the forecast period have been
drier, so much of the region may have to wait at least 10 days
before the next good chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

South winds will increase today and become gusty by midday
along/west of the Kansas turnpike. Some stratocu may develop or
move into south central Kansas and the Flint Hills in response
to some elevated low-level moisture advection. The low level jet
is expected to ramp up tonight resulting in low-level wind
shear conditions along/east of the I-135 corridor.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KED